Here is the latest thinking on the severe weather risks for today and tonight.
It's a complex weather pattern with multiple thunderstorm areas and hazards. Scattered thunderstorms will persist across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas this morning. The main hazard with these storms will be in the form large hail. A warm front is expected to lift northward and position itself across northern Missouri by this afternoon. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible along this front this afternoon with a threat of large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado or two. The greater concern is areas across eastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri where supercell thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and this evening. These storms would be capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. These storms are then expected to transition/merge into a line of storms, likely across far eastern Kansas or western Missouri. As this occurs, the threat of hail will decrease, but the threat of damaging winds will increase. It also looks like this line of storms, as it tracks across Missouri late this evening and tonight, will be capable of producing tornadoes. Additionally, these storms will bring very heavy rainfall to the area, with some areas seeing upwards of 4 inches of rain. This will lead to flash flooding and eventually flooding of area creeks and rivers.
Definitely pay attention to the weather today and tonight and remember that a thunderstorm or tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather to occur. A thunderstorm or tornado warning means that severe weather is occurring or is imminent.
